AGP Executive Report

Malaysia–Thailand Deal Push: PM Anwar and Thailand’s PM Anutin agreed to expedite border connectivity projects, develop special border economic zones, and speed up immigration/customs steps, targeting US$30bn trade by 2027; they also resolved fisheries market-access disputes and will bring an agricultural cooperation MoU into force within a week. Anti-Fraud Crackdown: Interpol’s Operation First Light 2026 (97 countries) netted 5,811 arrests and intercepted about US$293m, including Thai-linked actions against romance and business email compromise scams. Payments Upgrade: Citigroup completed its first instant international dollar transfer with Siam Commercial Bank, signalling growing corporate demand for faster cross-border payments. Thailand–Malaysia Border Trade: Leaders also backed a new border crossing opening in Kedah/Songkhla and discussed bridge projects to improve overland logistics. AI & Jobs Watch: An ILO report flags uneven ASEAN readiness for generative AI, with Cambodia among the least prepared, while warning preparedness gaps—not immediate mass job losses—are the key risk. Tourism & Travel: Thailand eyes a summer-holiday tourism boost as arrivals remain down 3.11%, while Thai PM Anutin’s Malaysia visit underlines trade and people-to-people ties.

IMF Outlook: The IMF cut its global growth forecast again to 3.0% for 2026, saying an AI investment boom only partially offsets Middle East war risks, with growth expected to rebound to 3.4% in 2027. AI & Thailand’s Edge: The IMF also flagged that AI-related hardware exporters including Thailand saw stronger-than-expected early growth, underscoring how tech supply-chain position can shape national outcomes. Energy & Inflation Pressure: Thailand’s Finance Minister warned the economy remains vulnerable to volatile oil prices because it relies heavily on imported crude, urging faster clean-energy and biofuel adoption. Food Cost Reality Check: Even as fuel prices fall, the Thai Restaurant Association says prepared food prices are unlikely to drop quickly due to higher inventory costs and sticky rents, power and labour. Renewables Investor Spotlight: Forbes’ Thailand Richest coverage highlights Gunkul Engineering’s push into renewable power projects, with shares surging on profit growth and a large order backlog. Corporate Climate Move: CP Group and the Mae Fah Luang Foundation launched carbon credit tokenisation via the TrueMoney app, aiming to create new community revenue streams. Tourism & Hotels: Anurak Lodge won a regenerative tourism award in Malaysia, while Canopy by Hilton Bangkok Sukhumvit opened reservations ahead of its 1 August debut. Trade & Logistics: Thailand approved a new permanent Sadao border checkpoint with Malaysia from 11 July to ease congestion and boost cross-border trade and tourism. Aviation Safety: AAPA hosted a turboprop and regional jet safety exchange in Kuala Lumpur, with Bangkok Airways’ chairman among speakers.

Thailand Economy & Industry: Thailand’s industrial confidence bounced back in June, with the Federation of Thai Industries’ sentiment index rising to 88.2 from 84.7 in May, helped by government cost-of-living measures and softer global oil prices, though capacity use stayed under pressure in steel, textiles and apparel. Markets: The SET Index slipped 1.04% to close at 1,577.06 on July 8, extending a recent losing streak. Energy & Inflation Watch: Oil jumped more than 6% after US President Donald Trump said the Iran ceasefire is “over,” raising fresh uncertainty for inflation and regional energy costs. Tourism & Immigration: TAT reminded visa-exempt travellers to carry proof of sufficient funds (10,000 baht for individuals; 20,000 for families) to avoid immigration delays. Business Deals & Cross-border Trade: Malaysia is pushing healthcare cooperation with Thailand via participation in WHX Bangkok 2026, while Xendit integrated the Philippines’ Dragonpay to build a unified payments network across ASEAN. Corporate & Legal: Nagashima Ohno & Tsunematsu plans to open a Silicon Valley office in August to support Japan-U.S. tech and investment work. Real Estate & Retail: Central Pattana and Mitsubishi Estate unveiled “CenTRal cENtrAL” at Pathumwan, a mixed-use youth-culture project worth over 11 billion baht.

Thailand-US Defence Push: Thailand’s foreign minister says Bangkok will deepen defence, cybersecurity and academic ties with the US while keeping a neutral foreign policy and backing a rules-based Indo-Pacific. AI Enterprise Race: Chinese tech giants are stepping up in Thailand’s enterprise AI market, pitching “agentic AI” to move beyond pilots and embed automation into everyday work. Property Slowdown: Greater Bangkok land asking prices are stagnating as the condo market contracts, with some sites facing discounts of up to 40% amid weaker demand. Bond Market Overhaul: The Thai Bond Market Association and SEC plan legal amendments to close loopholes that let bond issuers dodge repayments via rehabilitation, aiming to strengthen retail protections. Regulator Gridlock: A telecom and regulatory analyst says the government should use legal powers to resolve NBTC commissioner disunity that is delaying key digital agendas. SME Link-Up: The Federation of Thai Industries will court Chinese SMEs for EEC investment via roadshows and bank-facilitated matching. Tourism Year-Round: Thailand 365 Days is being pushed to spread high-quality tourism beyond big cities, using GI products and sustainable standards. Hospitality Leadership: RISE 2026 highlights women’s underrepresentation in hotel executive roles and returns to Phuket on Sept 3.

Heat Risk Watch: An Oxford study flags extreme El Niño-driven heat risk for Southeast Asian cities, putting Bangkok and Samut Prakan among the world’s most exposed. Energy & Inflation: Falling crude prices are giving Asian central banks more room, with Standard Chartered pointing to easing energy inflation and lower balance-of-payments pressure for importers like Thailand. Telecom Ownership Probe: Thailand’s SEC is reviewing claims by Supaporn Pimphong after she emerged as a major True Corporation shareholder with a stake reportedly worth about US$1bn. Corporate & Trade Finance: EDC and EXIM Thailand signed a Canada trade MoU to expand bilateral investment and cooperation. Clean Energy Push: JERA and EGAT ink an MoU to explore hydrogen and ammonia value chains, aiming to accelerate Thailand’s low-carbon fuel transition. Consumer & Packaging Innovation: Thai Union rolls out a mono-material recyclable John West tuna pouch designed for easier recycling. Regional Business Climate: Vietnam climbs to 10th in an ease-of-doing-business survey, while Thailand and other markets see softer sentiment. Cross-border Security: Thailand launches SHIELD to combat cross-border scam networks.

Energy & Courts: Thailand’s Constitutional Court is set to rule on a 400bn-baht emergency borrowing decree tied to energy reform, with Finance Minister Ekniti saying the plan needs tighter coordination with the private sector if the decree is rejected. Air & Cities: New initiatives target long-running air pollution in Bangkok’s Chinatown, including expanded monitoring and clean-air grants aimed at cutting traffic-linked health risks. Markets & Inflation: Thailand’s June headline inflation rose 2.42% y/y, keeping pressure on living costs while markets watch the policy outlook. Trade & Tourism: Thailand’s Thai-EU FTA is in the final stretch after a Brussels breakthrough, while tourism campaigns continue to push arrivals into the second half. Aviation & Tech: SITA says aviation growth will be powered more by software than new airport capacity, highlighting faster border and baggage processes. Business & Compliance: Prime Registered Agent launched a mobile app to help clients manage registered agent services, documents and compliance on the go. Archaeology & Trade Links: Two 2,000-year-old gold rings with ancient Indian Brahmi script were unearthed in Thailand, pointing to early India–Southeast Asia connections.

Inflation Watch: Thailand’s headline CPI rose 2.42% y/y in June, up from May, driven by higher fuel costs and prepared food prices, while core CPI also accelerated to 1.23%—keeping inflation inside the central bank’s 1%-3% target band. Property & Retail: Central Pattana and Mitsubishi Estate unveiled the 11bn baht “CenTRal cENtrAL” Siam Square megaproject, a retail-plus-workplace-plus-hotel plan aimed at repositioning Bangkok as a global creative hub. Cyber & Security: Thailand is stepping up outbound airport screening after an Australia case involving a Thai airline crew member charged over alleged heroin smuggling, with customs preparing AI and risk-based checks to target high-risk passengers and cargo. Competition & Legal Services: Kudun and Partners added a technology/data innovation practice leader and launched an antitrust and trade competition team, signaling more focus on digital competition and cartel enforcement. Regional Trade & Energy: Singapore and Indonesia pledged to keep the Strait of Malacca open, safe and accessible, while energy transition reporting highlights the shift toward transmission, storage and cross-border power links across Southeast Asia. Markets: Thailand’s SET Index closed up 1.39% to 1,613.33 on July 6.

EV Push: Thailand secured over $4.1bn in EV investment commitments covering 198 projects across the full supply chain, with BOI data showing electrified vehicles already topping 40% of new registrations in 2025. Tourism Connectivity: AirAsia held talks in Hua Hin on possible international routes to Singapore, Taipei, Shanghai and Kuala Lumpur, with incentives like lower airport fees flagged as key to making flights viable. Tourism Demand: Koh Tao is on track to exceed 800,000 arrivals this year, after 407,697 visitors in the first half, supported by new attractions and tighter marine protection. Industrial Policy: TDRI says Thailand’s industrial strategy is stuck and argues for a jobs-first industrial policy that upgrades human capital and improves how target industries are selected. Data Centres & Power: Gartner warns AI data centre plans hinge on three constraints—scarce AI server supply, costly infrastructure build-outs, and especially electricity availability and pricing. Green Finance: WHA frames sustainability as “Turning Green to Growth,” linking lower emissions and ecosystem restoration to long-term revenue opportunities. Market & FX: With oil shock easing, UOB expects currencies including the Thai baht to face less downside, supporting a steadier outlook for regional economies. Governance & Regulation: Bhumjaithai backs a medical-only cannabis approach and urges parliament to prioritise a new medical cannabis bill to close recreational-use loopholes.

Semiconductor Push: India’s CG Semi OSAT facility in Sanand, Gujarat has started commercial production, with PM Modi saying it will produce 200 million chips a year and support a broader goal of 500 million chips annually, while CG Power targets scaling to 16 million chips a day and “Grade 1” qualification within 18–24 months. Pharma Trade: CPHI South East Asia 2026 opens July 8–10 in Bangkok, aiming to draw 10,000+ trade visitors and 400+ exhibitors across ingredients, packaging, cleanroom tech and cold-chain solutions, with 60+ sessions on regulation and manufacturing standards. Gold Outlook for Thailand: At the Thailand Gold Summit, traders forecast gold could test $5,000/oz by year-end, citing de-dollarisation themes and demand shifts, while positioning Thailand as a regional gold hub. Tourism & Trade Security: Thailand is stepping up scrutiny of tourism nominees and security measures as arrivals edge up, while separate reports highlight scams and enforcement pressure on illegal travel agents. Local Market Watch: Thailand’s gold and food-security strategy is being framed around resilience, and regulators are also under pressure over consumer-safety issues, including banned products.

Economic Outlook: Thailand plans to lift its annual economic growth potential to 3.0% from 2.7% by 2030, driven by investment, trade and services (including tourism and agriculture), plus human-capital development and easier business conditions. Aviation Regulation: CAAT has tightened rules for airline crew baggage handling after a Thai Airways attendant was arrested in Melbourne with over 1kg of heroin, requiring airlines to add risk controls, random checks, training and reporting channels. Tourism & Connectivity: Hua Hin’s airport upgrade is in focus, with new potential international routes being identified as Thailand pushes for more year-round travel demand. Trade & Food Security: The Fisheries Department says it needs at least 30 days to assess Thai documents for Malaysia’s suspension of prawn import permits, with disease-risk concerns still central. Business & Investment Links: Thailand’s push for higher growth also sits alongside regional deal flow, including cross-border healthcare and finance partnerships expanding premium services across Thailand and Asia.

Tourism & Aviation: Hua Hin is pushing for year-round international demand, with Thai AirAsia and government agencies identifying four overseas routes—Singapore, Taipei, Shanghai and Kuala Lumpur—to lift higher-spending visitors. Investment & Industrial Policy: The BOI’s FastPass aims to turn approvals into real FDI, targeting about 900bn–1tn baht, while a Skill Bridge push focuses on tech transfer and workforce upskilling. Fraud & Compliance: Thailand’s Commerce Ministry is cracking down on nominee networks using data-sharing and pre-registration screening, cutting high-risk juristic entities by over 65%. Cybercrime & Borders: India is probing reports of Indians trafficked into Myanmar scam compounds forced into crypto fraud, with cases linked to Thailand-Myanmar border operations. Energy Transition: Ekniti says Thailand’s clean-energy shift should rely on a mix of funding, including the Thailand Future Fund, to reduce pressure on public debt. Business Expansion: BlaBlaCar expands to 20 new countries, including Thailand, as it scales shared mobility across Southeast Asia. Regional Trade: Indonesia shipped its first frozen tuna loin export from Maluku to Thailand, supported by required quality and safety certification. Culture & Heritage: Thai archaeologists uncovered two ancient Indian gold rings in Phetchaburi, pointing to early maritime trade links.

ASEAN Border Monitoring: Cambodia’s complaint over Thai border incursions has prompted assurances from outgoing Philippine Ambassador Flerida Mayo that the ASEAN Observer Team will keep its Thailand border mission transparent and impartial. Anti-Drug Push: Thailand’s PM Anutin says the arrest of a Thai Airways crew member in Australia has hurt the country’s image, and narcotics suppression is now a national agenda with a focus on dismantling networks at their source. Green Manufacturing & BCG: Thailand is doubling down on the BCG model to back net-zero goals, with tighter environmental standards and talks with foreign investors on EVs and renewables. Food Delivery Boost: The “Thais Help Thais Plus” co-payment scheme is credited with reviving spending, with GrabFood and Line Man Wongnai reporting strong order growth after the June 15 extension. E20 Ethanol Debate: India’s government rebutted E20 fuel misinformation, defending ethanol blending with scientific studies and international experience. Digital Infrastructure: NEC will supply the I-2SEA submarine cable linking India, Malaysia and Singapore, targeting service in 2029 to meet AI-driven bandwidth demand. Thailand Tech & Markets: Thailand’s rubber market rebounded on supply concerns from heavy rain and firmer raw latex prices, while global stocks mostly rose as tech shares bounced.

EV Investment Push: Thailand secured about $4.1bn (137bn baht) in EV supply-chain investment pledges across 198 projects, spanning batteries, components and charging, as the BOI backs a multi-technology transition (HEV/PHEV/BEV) to keep the country competitive. Trade Outlook: The Thai National Shippers’ Council expects exports to rise 8–10% in 2026, citing strong Jan–May growth but warning of risks from the baht, energy and production costs, tight credit for small firms, and El Niño. Airport & Security: Thai PM Anutin ordered tighter airport baggage screening after a Thai Airways crew member was charged in Australia over heroin smuggling, highlighting concerns that traffickers are targeting airline staff. Healthcare Business: Orthocell appointed MediTime as exclusive distributor in Thailand for its Remplir nerve repair product, aiming to open an estimated $84m market. Food Prices: FAO said global food commodity prices edged down in June as cereal, sugar and dairy fell, though the index stayed above last year. Regional Mobility: Singapore Airlines will run double-daily flights from London Gatwick to Singapore this summer, adding connectivity to Thailand and the wider region.

Aviation & Security: Thai PM Anutin orders urgent talks between narcotics and Airports of Thailand after Australia-linked heroin cases involving a Thai Airways employee raise concerns for Thailand’s aviation-hub image and OECD accession push. Auto Strategy: Honda Automobile (Thailand) plans to make next-gen hybrid EVs the core of its lineup, targeting ~90% of sales as HEVs by 2029 to counter Chinese BEV dominance. AI for Business: MHESI and partners launch the Thailand AI Readiness Index (TARI) to help organisations assess AI capability; results are due in December, with capability reports by 2027. Energy & Trade: EDC and EXIM Thailand sign an MoU to expand Canada–Thailand trade and investment, focusing on agri-food, clean tech, energy transition, digital industries and critical minerals. Energy Dealmaking: Gastech 2026 returns to Bangkok (Sept 14-17) to convene LNG, low-carbon and energy-system leaders amid rising demand and supply-security pressures. Budget Watch: Thailand’s 2027 budget bill clears first reading and moves to a special committee as the government defends spending priorities and limited fiscal room. Markets & FX: SCB expects baht weakness to be temporary, with the currency likely to trade around 33–33.50 per dollar late in Q3. Tourism & Airlines: Thai Airways resumes daily Bangkok–Amsterdam flights with A350 service after a 28-year gap. Local Governance: DLA recruitment exam fraud leads to disciplinary probes of five officials after findings of falsified scores and altered answer sheets.

Aviation Security Crackdown: Thailand’s PM Anutin has ordered urgent talks between narcotics agencies and Airports of Thailand after two Australia-linked drug cases, as the government pushes its aviation-hub plans and targets OECD accession by 2028. Airport Image Risks: The latest case follows the arrest of a Thai Airways employee in Melbourne over alleged heroin smuggling, while Thai social media circulated AI-made arrest images—prompting AFP to flag them as fake. Business Compliance Push: The DBD and Revenue Department are linking data to crack down on illegal businesses run by foreign nationals via Thai nominees, with inspections targeting high-risk non-compliant firms. Tourism & Trade Signals: Thailand’s SET Index jumped 3.09% to 1,589.94 on July 2, while Thai fresh durian exports to China topped THB100bn in the first half, supported by tighter export quality controls. Regional Deals & Expansion: Frasers Group agreed to sell its Sports Direct Malaysia stake for about US$150m to MAP Active, aiming to expand stores across Southeast Asia. AI Readiness Drive: Thailand launched its first National AI Readiness Index to help boost business competitiveness, with a nationwide survey planned to track progress.

SME Export Gap: Thailand’s export and FDI boom is not lifting the real economy enough, with capacity utilisation stuck at 59.6% in May, prompting a new JSCCIB push to map and target SMEs that are missing out—especially those outside the formal system. E-commerce Oversight: The Trade Competition Commission of Thailand will set up a subcommittee to monitor e-commerce platform commission-fee practices, aiming to tighten criteria and improve compliance while keeping consumer protection with the relevant board. Public Debt Pressure: Thailand’s Finance Ministry warns the country has effectively used up its structural fiscal buffer as debt servicing burdens rise, urging faster reforms and fiscal consolidation to protect debt sustainability. Land Bridge Rail Plan: The Federation of Thai Industries is forming a panel to help advance the “missing link” Chumphon–Ranong rail scheme, seen as a key connector for the Land Bridge logistics push. Tourism & Hotels: Dusit International expands in Japan with WE Hotel Toya, Dusit Collection in Hokkaido, adding to its growing portfolio. Social Media Rules for Kids: Thailand is studying a possible ban on social media use for children under 16, citing heavy daily screen time and online risks. Earnings & Expansion: flydubai launches daily direct flights to Bangkok from Dubai, boosting UAE–Thailand connectivity. Energy & Trade Risks: Thailand is also watching regional energy and trade pressures, including Hormuz shipping disruptions and their knock-on effects for markets.