AGP Executive Report

Thailand Economy Watch: Thailand’s industrial output shrank 3.1% y/y in June, with weakness tied to autos and petroleum, while electronics demand and government copayment support helped cushion the slide. US Trade Pressure: The US Treasury kept Thailand on its currency “monitoring list” and new Section 301 forced-labour tariffs are still an overhang for exporters, even as some product exemptions may mute near-term impact. Capital Markets Security: Thailand’s SEC is monitoring the Thailand Securities Depository after unauthorised access to the TSD Investor Portal exposed some users’ personal data, with trading and investor assets said to be unaffected. Policy & Cost of Living: The cabinet eased eligibility rules for the State Welfare Card, allowing about 9.3 million rejected applicants to appeal, with changes covering shares, student status and vehicle ownership. Business & Investment: JBIC signed a THB35m loan to Nissen Chemitec (Thailand) for equipment supporting plastic parts operations, with co-financing from Iyo Bank. Regional Trade & Logistics: Cambodia forecast 3.9% growth for 2026 and pointed to export strength, including a surge in bicycle exports and faster durian shipments to China via a new rail corridor. Tech & AI Governance: Thailand is tightening data-centre rules as AI demand grows, while regulators and industry push for “trusted AI” governance.

Data Centres & Power Policy: Thailand approved new rules for large data centres, including a 4.5m baht bank guarantee per reserved megawatt and a separate electricity tariff plan to stop power hoarding and protect grid investment. AI & Governance: Thailand pushed for “responsible AI” and trusted regional cooperation at an Asia-Pacific forum, warning about deepfakes, identity abuse and online crime. Crypto Regulation: The SEC filed a criminal complaint against Bitkub and two former directors over alleged false reporting after a 1.7bn baht cyber-attack, reviving governance and transparency concerns. Cybersecurity: Thailand Securities Depository blocked unauthorised access to personal data via its Investor Portal, stressing no impact on trading or assets and urging users to watch for phishing. Trade & Tariffs: Despite US forced-labour tariff pressure, Thai exports to the US rose nearly 34% in the first nine months, while overall trade expanded; separately, Thailand’s exports to China grew only marginally. Tourism & Mobility: Cabinet approved 30-day visa-free entry for Indians, with authorities expecting arrivals to hit about 2.7m next year as airlines add capacity. Tourism Crackdown: Phuket launched legal action against eight jet ski operators over unlicensed activity and alleged foreign nominee arrangements. Wellness Push: The Thai Spa Association aims to lift Thailand into the top five wellness economies in Asia-Pacific by 2030, with awards in October and a Global Wellness Summit in November. Regional Business: Thailand also advanced UNESCO bids for Chiang Mai’s Lanna heritage and Wat Arun’s central prang.

Banking & Trade Payments: South Korea’s KB Kookmin Bank will launch a Kinexys-based blockchain cross-border USD remittance service in August 2026 for import-export firms, linking to SWIFT and covering 10 countries including Thailand. Public Sector Reshuffle: Thailand will start dissolving and merging overlapping state agencies from September, with the Land Bank Administration Institute slated as the first target. Property Market Watch: Thai home sellers are cutting prices on new and second-hand units as tight lending keeps demand sluggish into 2H26, even as fee-relief measures and LTV easing offer only limited support. Tourism & Events: Tomorrowland Thailand is set to generate at least 6.132 billion baht in economic impact, while Hua Hin’s Food Fest returns 28–30 Aug to boost local dining and seafood businesses. Culture & Heritage: A centuries-old monastery in southern Thailand, Wat Phra Mahathat Woramahawihan, has been added to UNESCO’s World Heritage List. Regional Security Cooperation: Asean police chiefs backed stronger intelligence sharing via an enhanced electronic Aseanapol Database System to fight transnational crime.

Thailand–South Korea Bio Partnership: Deputy PM Yodchanan Wongsawat says Thailand wants a Korea-linked biotech ecosystem linking universities, startups and big firms, while easing regulatory hurdles for Korean entrants. Border Security & Trade Hit: Thailand is building a fortified Cambodia border wall as crossings stay shut, with local trade and livelihoods still disrupted. Land Bridge Scrapped: Opposition figures back the government’s move to replace the Land Bridge megaproject with a smaller “Missing Link” plan, arguing it’s more feasible and less risky for the budget. Nominee Land Crackdown: Thailand’s Interior Ministry seized 126 rai in Krabi worth over 2.1bn baht tied to a British nominee scheme using Thai shareholding structures, with further legal steps expected within 6–12 months. Disaster Compensation Rules: A Krabi petrol station hit by a Cambodian rocket last year won’t get extra payouts because insurance and PTT coverage already fully compensated property losses. Welfare Card Scrutiny: A welfare-card eligibility dispute highlights how tightened poverty screening can leave eligible people out, raising pressure for clearer, fairer checks. Public Sector Reshuffle: The government plans to cut the civil workforce from 3m to 2m via early retirement and hiring freezes, aiming to boost pay and benefits for remaining staff.

US Tariffs & Forced-Labour Claims: The U.S. has rolled out new Section 301 tariffs on imports from 60 economies, prompting immediate pushback from trading partners including China and Japan, while analysts warn Asia-Pacific exporters could face higher costs and slower trade. Thailand Export Shielding: Thailand is moving to protect exporters from the 12.5% U.S. tariff hit, as officials say the impact remains limited thanks to exemptions and adjustments. Thai Baht Watch: The baht slid to a 15-month low against the U.S. dollar, adding pressure for importers and firms with USD exposure. SEC vs Bitkub: Thailand’s SEC filed a criminal complaint against Bitkub over alleged false disclosures tied to its 2021 hack, as the exchange pushes back. Northern Connectivity Boost: EZY Airlines added October 2026 flights linking Chiang Mai with Mae Hong Son and Pai, aiming to lift tourism and regional business travel. Tourism & Culture: UNESCO named Nakhon Si Thammarat’s Wat Phra Mahathat a World Heritage Site, spotlighting Thailand’s living traditions. Green & Industry Reform: Deputy PM Ekniti Nitithanprapas unveiled a three-pillar reform roadmap focused on clean energy, ageing workforce adaptation, and upskilling to keep Thailand competitive. Cross-border Security: Thai police seized advanced FPV drones and components allegedly destined for smuggling into Myanmar, with suspects detained.

US-THAILAND TRADE: Thai exporters are watching the new Trump forced-labour tariffs closely, but the private sector says the impact on competitiveness is likely limited as Thailand’s 12.5% rate is similar to many rivals. EXPORT PERFORMANCE: Thailand’s exports jumped 20.8% in June to US$34.7bn, led by industrial goods including electronics and autos, while imports rose 50.3% and widened the trade deficit. INVESTMENT PROMOTION: The Board of Investment (BoI) is teaming up with Citi Thailand to boost FDI outreach as AI data-centre and digital infrastructure projects drive a 37% jump in investment applications in H1. CAPITAL MARKETS INTEGRITY: Thailand’s SEC disclosure system faces scrutiny after false Form 246-2 filings triggered investor concerns about the accuracy of self-reported shareholding changes. ENERGY SECURITY: Thailand says it has 108 days of oil stocks and confirmed supplies after diversifying crude imports amid Middle East disruption risks. PHUKET ENFORCEMENT: Authorities step up Phuket crackdowns on illegal hotels, citing missing licences and suspected nominee arrangements. FINANCIAL CYBERSECURITY: Bank of Thailand and Singapore’s MAS sign a cybersecurity pact to strengthen information sharing and readiness against digital fraud. REGIONAL DIPLOMACY: China and ASEAN foreign ministers agree to explore energy cooperation mechanisms, while India and Thailand push deeper connectivity and people-to-people ties.

US-ASEAN Diplomacy: The US reiterated it will keep operating in international waters in the South China Sea and warned any ASEAN-China Code of Conduct must not undermine US interests, after Rubio’s Manila visit. US Forced-Labour Tariffs: Washington set new Section 301 duties on 60 economies, with Cambodia, Bangladesh and others getting 10% while Thailand and Viet Nam face 12.5%, reshaping apparel sourcing and competitiveness. Cambodia-US Trade Talks: Cambodia’s commerce minister said talks with the US cover customs modernization, licensing and enforcement ahead of its 2029 LDC graduation, aiming to preserve lower tariff treatment. Thailand Logistics Pivot: Thailand scaled back a US$30bn “land bridge” after a review flagged weak commercial returns and environmental risks, shifting focus to upgrading Ranong port and rail links. Thailand AI Investment Surge: Thailand’s investment applications jumped 37% in Jan–June to US$43.6bn on AI and digital demand, with data-centre and tech projects driving inflows. Thailand SEC Action: The SEC filed a criminal complaint against Bitkub and former directors over alleged cover-up of a 2021 hack, adding pressure to crypto governance. Marine Restoration: Thailand is trialling 3D-printed bioplastic shelters to protect seagrass transplants from waves and animals, supporting fisheries and dugong recovery. Cognizant x Gulf Edge: Cognizant and Gulf Edge announced a strategic partnership to accelerate enterprise AI adoption using sovereign digital infrastructure.

US Forced-Labour Tariffs: The Trump administration finalized Section 301 tariffs of 10%–12.5% on 60 economies, including Thailand, starting Friday, replacing emergency duties struck down by the Supreme Court and aimed at pressuring forced-labour import bans. FX Watchlist: The US Treasury kept Thailand on its enhanced foreign-exchange monitoring list, citing macro and intervention criteria even as it found no major trading partner manipulated currency for unfair advantage in 2025. AI Hub Push: Thailand is pitching “trustworthy AI” as its differentiator, with DES highlighting data-centre capacity, AI governance and talent plans, plus Huawei-backed ecosystem efforts. Direct Power for Data Centres: Thailand’s renewable sector is urging policy tweaks so producers with expired adder tariffs can sell clean power directly to data centres under expanded direct PPA rules. Energy & Heat Costs: Bangkok’s extreme-heat risk is rising fast, with projected higher heat days and major impacts on health, productivity, and electricity demand. Thailand Welfare Card: The Finance Ministry revised welfare card vehicle eligibility, keeping older car and motorcycle owners covered and extending appeals to Sept 20. Regional Crime Crackdown: Cambodia’s PM Hun Manet says scam networks are decentralising across Southeast Asia, prompting tougher cross-border enforcement. Thailand–Myanmar Mediation: Thailand is trying to facilitate Myanmar crisis dialogue via ASEAN meetings, but analysts warn it depends on whether Myanmar truly trusts Bangkok.

AI Investment Surge: Thailand’s foreign and domestic investment jumped 37% in Jan–Jun 2026 to $43.6bn, with AI and data-centre projects driving the bulk of demand. FDI Pipeline: BOI says foreign bids for Thailand rose 80% to 1.37tn baht, with digital projects (AI/data centres) making up more than three-quarters of applications. Local Procurement Push: Thailand’s defence procurement drive is pushing firms to pivot toward military contracts, pulling in players from drones and satellite services. Capital Markets & Fintech: The SEC filed a criminal complaint over Bitkub’s alleged concealment of a B1.7bn hack, while OwlTing reported a 5x jump in Q2 payment volume on its OwlPay Harbor. Thailand–China Trade: The Thailand–China Cooperation Expo opened in Bangkok, with Thai PM Anutin urging deeper China ties to boost competitiveness and investment. EV & Industry: SCG reported strong H1 results and dividends, while Thailand continues work on large EV replacement plans. Airline Watch: India’s Adani is considering launching an airline, a potential shake-up in a market dominated by IndiGo and Air India.

Public Safety & Crime Crackdown: PM Anutin orders tougher nationwide action against crime, citing drug trafficking, cybercrime, online scams, illegal gambling and organised crime as threats to tourism and economic confidence. Cross-Border Environment: Thailand will raise Kok River toxic contamination with Myanmar during Min Aung Hlaing’s Aug 3-4 visit, alongside haze from agricultural burning and narcotics production. Transport Disruption: Airport Rail Link resumes full service after a fault disrupted operations all day, with a technical investigation continuing. Healthcare Expansion: NHSO expands the 30-baht gold card to cover bariatric surgery for eligible severe obesity patients under strict medical criteria. Data Economy Bottleneck: TDRI warns Thailand’s data-driven push is stuck because government and private databases sit in silos, limiting value creation. AI & Trade Tensions: The US accuses China’s Moonshot AI of distilling Anthropic’s model for Kimi K3 and threatens sanctions, while the White House also claims Moonshot accessed Nvidia GB300 chips via Thailand. Business & Travel: Thailand wins the bid to host IEEE ICRA 2030 in Bangkok (June 13-17, 2030), expected to draw about 10,000 delegates. Tourism Connectivity: Virgin Atlantic launches non-stop Heathrow-Phuket flights from Oct 18, 2026, adding direct UK access to Southern Thailand.

ASEAN-US Ties: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told ASEAN in Manila the partnership is “in Washington’s national interest,” backed by $2.5bn in strategic investments and $1.5bn via the US International Development Finance Corporation for aviation, energy security and supply chains. Scam Economy: A UNODC report says Asia-Pacific scam losses hit $88.3bn–$114.1bn in 2025, with Southeast Asia a key hub as Chinese-origin syndicates diversify crimes and use AI to stay ahead of crackdowns. Cross-border Crime Tech: UNODC also warns transnational networks are using global financial systems and AI for laundering and theft, with growing risks to children via scam compounds and online abuse channels. Hotel Pricing Trend: A new market study says hotel returns are increasingly driven by room rates rather than occupancy, with rate-led growth showing up across major markets. Thailand Digital Lending: Siam Digital Lending joined AWS Activate to scale AI-powered lending for underserved Thai borrowers, aiming to speed underwriting and strengthen fraud controls. Bangkok Elder Care Service: Bangkok City Hall plans adult-diaper requests for elderly residents via Traffy Fondue, targeting full rollout by Oct 1 after data and location verification work. Food Safety & Brands: South Korea prosecutors seek jail for a Michelin-star restaurant over ant-topped desserts, highlighting tighter rules on approved insect ingredients. Aviation Capacity Push: Singapore’s CAAS plans $4bn over 15 years to boost air navigation capacity using AI, add 200 controllers, and double aircraft handling limits ahead of Terminal 5.

FBI-Thai Security Push: FBI Director Kash Patel met PM Anutin, praising Thailand’s dismantling of online scam networks and pledging tighter cooperation on cybercrime, human trafficking and narcotics, with expanded intelligence sharing and joint capabilities. Illicit Economy Warning: A UNODC report says Southeast Asia’s criminal groups are using integrated networks and tech (including AI) to scale scams and other trafficking, with 2025 losses estimated at $88.3bn–$114.1bn. Ports & Property: Deputy PM/Transport Minister Phiphat ordered a study on shifting Bangkok Port cargo to Laem Chabang, aiming to free 500–600 rai for redevelopment and improve eco-friendly port operations. Wildlife & Tourism Pressure: Cabinet approved removing the red-whiskered bulbul from Thailand’s protected list, enabling commercial breeding while keeping oversight. Durian Supply Management: Thailand’s Commerce Ministry is stepping up southern durian distribution of 300,000 tonnes after China slowed orders over quality concerns. Office Market Competition: Bangkok landlords are increasingly using barter and matched incentives to fill vacancies as new office completions stay low. Welfare Appeals: PM Anutin extended appeal deadlines for rejected welfare-card applicants and set up appeal centres plus mobile survey teams.

Thailand-China Diplomacy: PM Anutin Charnvirakul met Xi Jinping in Shanghai, with both sides stressing deeper strategic trust and using the “2+2” security dialogue to tackle regional challenges. ASEAN Security & Scams: South Korea’s FM Cho Hyun is set to co-chair a Korea-ASEAN meeting with Thailand in the Philippines, focusing on AI cooperation, culture and joint action against online scam crimes. Cross-border Crime Crackdown: Thailand-FBI cooperation is highlighted alongside a UNODC report saying Asia-Pacific scam losses hit at least $88bn in 2025, as syndicates evolve into “franchised” transnational networks. Digital Enforcement: Thailand’s Digital Ministry says it blocked 883,012 illegal URLs since Oct 1, 2025, with online gambling the biggest target, aiming for faster takedowns to protect e-commerce trust. Trade & Exports: Thailand’s fresh durian exports to China passed 1 million tonnes (1,000,763.66) by July 19, worth over 114.82bn baht, as agencies push marketing and processed products. Business Expansion: Covestro acquired former Vencorex HDI-derivatives sites in Rayong to strengthen regional supply for coatings and adhesives. Regional Business Deals: Hyrax Oil signed distributor and technical services deals to expand transformer fluids and engineering support across Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam. Markets & Finance: SGX will start trading Singapore depository receipts for Grab, Sea and SpaceX, giving Thai investors easier SGD exposure to US tech leaders.

Thailand–China Deal Flow: PM Anutin’s China visit wrapped with multiple cooperation documents across trade, agriculture, customs, tech, AI, aviation and IP, plus plans for the 50th anniversary of ties and a new BOI office in Chengdu to pull investment from western China. Investment Gateway Push: Anutin also said Thailand is ready to serve as an ASEAN investment gateway for Sichuan firms, while BOI opens its fourth China office to speed project facilitation. Tourism Revenue Focus: TAT reported 17.36m foreign arrivals in Jan 1–July 18 (down 3.05%), but revenue hit 838.73bn baht; it is now prioritising higher spend per trip and working with Chinese partners like Sichuan Airlines and Meituan despite limited flight capacity. FX Watch: The baht is expected to keep weakening toward 34.00–34.40 per US dollar as Middle East tensions and oil-driven pressure persist. Welfare Overhaul: Finance Ministry will propose moving 6m people excluded from the 2026 welfare card into a co-payment scheme and ease rules after complaints, including vehicle-ownership eligibility issues. Food Cost Pressure: Thai Restaurant Association urged the government to cut ingredient costs via bulk purchasing links to wholesalers and a central platform, rather than dish-by-dish subsidies under the 40-baht khao kaeng scheme. Banking Update: Ascend Bank’s commercial launch is delayed to this year due to regulatory and technology integration demands. Property Demand Shift: In Bangkok, rental enquiries are outpacing homebuying searches, with demand concentrated around employment hubs. Creator Marketing Expansion: Fabulate appointed Gabrielle Lawton as its first New Zealand commercial lead, signalling continued APAC expansion. Healthcare Tech: KA Imaging won Thai FDA and Singapore HSA approvals for its Reveal 35C spectral X-ray detector, expanding access via local partners.

Thailand-China Investment: Changan Automobile reaffirmed its long-term Thailand commitment at the Thailand-China (Sichuan) Investment and Economic Forum, targeting 70,000+ vehicle sales by 2030 and citing Rayong NEV output for domestic and exports. ASEAN Diplomacy & Energy Security: ASEAN foreign ministers meet in Manila to address renewed Middle East hostilities and push for full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran war and oil supply risks front and centre. Rail & Ticketing Upgrade: Thailand is rolling out integrated ticketing across urban rail, with EMV card readers planned and Thai nationals to get fare entitlements on EMV-verified journeys. Retail Expansion: OR and Minor Food will turn PTT station forecourts into food and lifestyle destinations, rolling out four restaurant brands to 150+ sites by 2030. Gold Market Watch: Thailand’s Gold Traders Association is seeking a meeting with the PM to oppose proposed taxes on gold transactions, warning business could shift to Singapore. Regional Trade Signals: Malaysia reported June 2026 trade up 44.7% to RM340.9bn, with exports and imports both rising and a larger surplus. Tourism Connectivity: Ezy Airlines plans a Chiang Mai–Mae Hong Son route from 1 Oct 2026, cutting road travel time from 5–7 hours to about 40 minutes by air.

Energy & Industry: PTT Global Chemical (GC) is ramping up Thailand’s sustainable aviation fuel push by upgrading refinery assets to turn used cooking oil into SAF and other bio-based chemicals, targeting 6 million litres/year first and expanding to 24 million, with claims of up to 85% lower CO2 versus conventional jet fuel. Public Finance: The Finance Ministry is fast-tracking public-private partnership (PPP) projects, with 20 approved so far and PPP investment expected to top 130 billion baht over three years, mainly in transport, as fiscal space tightens. Social Welfare: About 2.76 million people who failed the 2026 welfare card eligibility screening have appealed, with vehicle ownership and debt limits the biggest disqualifiers, and benefits set to start after October for successful cases. Transport & EEC: Thailand’s Eastern Economic Corridor push continues despite uncertainty around the high-speed rail project, with officials stressing contract limits and the need for policy continuity to keep investor confidence. Aviation & Telecom: National Telecom extended Thaicom 4’s retirement to end-September 2026 to avoid service disruption, while disputing management-fee payments over technical risk. Business & Consumer Trends: Thailand’s “pet economy” is gaining momentum as pet owners spend more on premium food, healthcare and services, creating new growth opportunities for local producers. Cross-border Trade & Diplomacy: Thailand and China ties stay in focus as CP Group urges investors from Chongqing and Sichuan, while Thailand’s EEC and EU FTA talks continue to shape the investment agenda.